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Friday, August 06, 2004

Fox Poll

The latest FOX News poll shows Kerry receives 46 percent to incumbent Bush's 43 percent in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters. The results are unchanged when independent candidate Ralph Nader (search) is added to the race, with two percent backing Nader, 46 percent Kerry and 42 percent Bush. Kerry's advantage is within the poll's three-percentage point margin of error.

In the two-way matchup, Kerry went from being dead even against Bush to having a three point edge. In the three-way race, Kerry went from being one-point behind to having a four-point advantage. And while the bump may be less than what the Democrats had hoped for, the 46 percent Kerry receives in the new poll is his best showing so far.

Previously, polling showed men more likely to back Bush, while support among women broke in Kerry's favor. In the latest poll, Kerry increased his vote among men by six percentage points and is now even with Bush, while still holding a nine-point edge among women. The Democrat also increases his support somewhat among independent voters this week, up four points since before the convention.

While Bush still has a small advantage over Kerry as the candidate more voters see as being a strong leader, the gap is much narrower — Bush had a 19-point edge before the convention and today that has closed to four-percentage points.

Kerry made gains on other characteristics as well, including now holding a seven-point edge over Bush as the candidate seen as being "more honest and trustworthy," and an 11-point lead as the candidate who "understands the average American better."

President Bush's job performance rating dipped in the last two weeks, with 44 percent today saying they approve and 48 percent disapprove, which is the lowest job rating he has ever received in a Fox News poll. Bush lost ground among both men and women, but his approval rating also fell seven points among Republicans.

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