I can only see this as a victory for Bush. If the election is close his boys will steal it again.
Bush Loses Advantage in War on Terrorism
Nation Evenly Divided on President, Kerry
Public anxiety over mounting casualties in Iraq and doubts about long-term consequences of the war continue to rise and have helped to erase President Bush's once-formidable advantage over Sen. John F. Kerry concerning who is best able to deal with terrorist threats, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2004
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2 comments:
Bush will steal the election, close or not. The only way to win this one is by a great big margin. Or, to have the outcome for Kerry so thoroughly predictable that the the theft of the election by Bush is recognized immediately and objected to and they lock up just Scalia (Thomas is attached to Scalia, so he'll go automatically) so the court won't hear the case.
However, the election cannot be one of great margins: there is a world shaking war that has been chosen as the means of persuing policy.
Regardless of petty intent, the war will shake Islam out of the middle ages, and with it, something like a third of the worlds population. So long as the pain does NOT reach home, Bush is a shoo-in.
Not only does the pain have to reach home, it has to do so with exquisite timing and depth: in time to affect the vote and not so early that it can be all smoothed over... That says a two week window, the 2nd and third weeks of October. That's when it happens.
Bringing the Islamic world out of the middle ages would be worth everything we've done. If I felt that was what we were doing and that it would be the end result I would back this war 100%. BUT, I feel that is NOT what we are doing. More like trying to make a quick buck (Bush et al) and trying to keep oil supplies stable (also, a worthy cause, but I feel this war made oil supplies less stable). The best solution is to invest heavily in alternative energies (imagine what $150 billion would have done!) Then oil supplies would be less important, our trade deficit would fall, etc. But Bush is buddy buddy with the Saudis.
I think the only way to steal this election is to have a close one. If it comes down to anything approaching a real margin of victory for Kerry then I don’t think they could get a way with it.
Another question is whether there will be exit polling. Exit polling is VERY accurate as to who is winning (Florida exit polls showed Gore won Fla in 2000) but I think the right came down hard on networks that gave Gore the state due to exit polls so they may not wish to announce them this time around.
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