Every time I visit India, Indians always ask me to compare India with China. Lately, I have responded like this: If India and China were both highways, the Chinese highway would be a six-lane, perfectly paved road, but with a huge speed bump off in the distance labeled "Political reform: how in the world do we get from Communism to a more open society?" When 1.3 billion people going 80 miles an hour hit a speed bump, one of two things happens: Either the car flies into the air and slams down, and all the parts hold together and it keeps on moving - or the car flies into the air, slams down and all the wheels fall off. Which it will be with China, I don't know. India, by contrast, is like a highway full of potholes, with no sidewalks and half the streetlamps broken. But off in the distance, the road seems to smooth out, and if it does, this country will be a dynamo. The question is: Is that smoother road in the distance a mirage or the real thing?
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Like a highway full of potholes
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I dunno: trade is war. The US has a big stick, its military, and considering China, nuclear weapons AND a nuclear deterrent that never gets used looks like the end game of one of the scenarios: the US, while terribly small, could be permantly venomous. Lends to a nice static endgame along that line.
As to the speedbump in the road, we would think we are well past that obstruction. Ac couple of billion people with high unemployment can make a continent, well, irritable.
Two trucks, heading for each other. One trucker rips the steering wheel out of the truck and throws it out the window, and the other trucker sees that. I forget what happens, or what the winning strategy was, if there was one.
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