http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P72144.asp

Restless youth, resurgent fundamentalism and a resentful middle class are an increasingly imminent threat to Saudi Arabia's rulers -- and to oil-addicted Westerners.

By Jon D. Markman

Saudi Arabia faces its gravest economic, social and political threat in years as hundreds of thousands of Muslims make their annual hajj to the nation’s holy sites this week. And if the House of Saud is threatened, so, too, are the price of oil and the great American right to own two SUVs, a Harley and an RV.

The menace, long simmering under the surface of a seemingly content society, has boiled to the surface recently with clashes between Saudi police and armed extremists in Riyadh and Mecca. And we’re not talking about the 250-plus pilgrims trampled while stoning Satan last weekend.
Last week, the Independent newspaper of Great Britain reported “an extraordinary level of political violence” in the al-Jouf province, power base of the al-Sudairy branch of the royal family, including assassinations of the deputy governor, police chief and a judge.

The Saudi government was forced Thursday to deny accounts in their own media of the existence of terrorist training camps in the kingdom. In a land already ruled with an iron fist, the German news service DPA reported that more than 1,000 surveillance cameras had been installed on roads to allow soldiers to monitor pilgrims’ every move.

A South Africa newspaper, the Cape Argus, said police in its country had intercepted a Pakistani plot to use fake passports to fly to Saudi Arabia via Cape Town.

And Reuters reported that diplomats said the Saudi government was deeply worried the hajj could become a target for attack or be used as a cover for militants to infiltrate the kingdom. In 2003, more than 50 people died in suicide bombings in Riyadh.
Even if violent disruption is avoided this week, there is little doubt that extremist elements are gaining strength in the homeland of the West’s most reliable Arab partner. The problem is not just al-Qaeda, which recruited most of the 9/11 suicide hijackers there. According to veteran observer John Bradley of the Independent, it’s also merchant families and tribes who were prominent in the country before the Sauds consolidated power in the early part of the last century and now see a chance to reassert themselves upon the death of the aged, ailing King Fahd.

American investors ignore this danger at their peril. For if three disparate forces hook up -- the disenfranchised non-royal merchant class, religious fundamentalists and disaffected youths -- our cheap, easy access to the Saudis’ vast petroleum reserves could be threatened for anywhere from a few weeks to years, sending oil prices north of $60.