Why worry about yuan?

From Hussman:

Now, why would international financial market participants want to hold onto their yuan but get rid of dollar holdings (or even borrow them)? Hmm.

While I don't yet anticipate an abrupt revaluation of the Chinese yuan (a change in the currency peg that would make the yuan appreciate, or equivalently, the U.S. dollar depreciate), suddenly all of this talk about China and other central banks wanting to “diversify” their holdings away from U.S. dollars seems to be having more bite. Anticipation of that type of event would tend to create just the sort of yuan hoarding and dollar borrowing that's reflected in Eurocurrency spreads (you want to borrow dollars if they're expected to depreciate, of course, so you can pay them back with cheaper dollars later).

Though I discussed the risk that an abrupt revaluation of Asian currencies would have, I also viewed that risk as somewhat remote - an important element to watch but not any sort of imminent threat. After all, China and Japan seemed to be willing to continue with the status quo, and nobody in the Administration would possibly provoke an event that could so profoundly destabilize the U.S. economy.

Well, in a move that is simply beyond comprehension, Treasury Secretary John Snow last week tried to jawbone China and Japan into revaluing their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar (i.e. to allow their currencies to become more expensive). In the unilateralist, partial equilibrium, no-unintended-consequences world that is the Bush Administration, more expensive Asian currencies are a way of protecting U.S. manufacturers from the competition of cheap imports. In the general equilibrium world that is reality, the potential effect of this policy could be disastrous.

How to quickly eliminate our gaping current account deficit

Recall that every major expansion in the U.S. economy has begun with a current account surplus. This means that the U.S. had not only enough savings to finance its own investment, but was even sending savings overseas by purchasing foreign securities. This allowed the U.S. to finance huge investment booms, first by drawing on those excess savings, and then by quickly moving to a current account deficit and importing savings from foreigners. Needless to say, with the U.S. presently running the deepest current account deficit in history, our ability to finance much sustained growth in domestic investment (factories, housing, equipment, capital spending) is sharply limited. Even our present level of economic activity is dependent on the largest inflows of foreign capital in history, largely from China and Japan.

In effect, the factor that allows the U.S. to continue its consumption binge, finance its investment, extend its housing boom, run irresponsibly large government deficits, swap corporate debt payments into ridiculously low short-term interest rates, and maintain unusually high valuations in the equity markets - the quiet support that keeps this whole house of cards standing - is the willingness of Asian economies to accumulate an endless supply of U.S. dollar assets (largely Treasury and U.S. agency securities). That willingness is driven by one goal - to hold their currencies down in relation to the U.S. dollar.

Incomprehensibly, the Administration is now trying to pressure China and Japan to give up that goal. If this effort succeeds, and particularly if that success is abrupt, surging short-term interest rates, higher corporate defaults, and a collapse in U.S. domestic investment would likely follow. As I used to teach my students, there is a really quick way to "balance" a current account deficit (which is also the main way that it happens in practice): plunge the economy into a deep recession. This isn't our expectation yet. It is, however, an increasing risk born of misguided economic analysis.