luckily we now know that...

It's All Newsweek's Fault

The right's rage at Newsweek is all too reminiscent of the contempt it heaped on Specialist Thomas Wilson, the soldier who dared to ask Mr. Rumsfeld at a town hall meeting in Kuwait in December about the shortage of armored vehicles. Mr. Wilson was guilty of "near-insubordination," said Rush Limbaugh; the embedded reporter who helped him frame his question was reviled by bloggers as a traitor. Yet Mr. Wilson's question was legitimate, and Mr. Rumsfeld's answer (that the shortage was only "a matter of production and capability") was a lie.

The Rumsfeld Stain

Rumsfeld: presentation is everything. aka don't let them see you sweat. aka too dumb to know you're dead (eg, Bush)
As to the war, it's over: the Sunni's have joined the government.
Not only will this quell the violence in Iraq, it will ripple through all of Islam. The Islamic Reformation has reached critical mass.
Finally, ALL the media seems to be carrying the heckling of Laura... makes no sense. Heckle Laura? George hides behind a skirt?
But none of it is going to matter: it's over.
(Yeah, Bush can still screw it up... if peace in Iraq does not bring oil or even promises less,, ummm, maybe that's just not acceptable: keep fighting.)
Ah, but HOW could he screw it up ?

Why worry about yuan?

From Hussman:

Now, why would international financial market participants want to hold onto their yuan but get rid of dollar holdings (or even borrow them)? Hmm.

While I don't yet anticipate an abrupt revaluation of the Chinese yuan (a change in the currency peg that would make the yuan appreciate, or equivalently, the U.S. dollar depreciate), suddenly all of this talk about China and other central banks wanting to “diversify” their holdings away from U.S. dollars seems to be having more bite. Anticipation of that type of event would tend to create just the sort of yuan hoarding and dollar borrowing that's reflected in Eurocurrency spreads (you want to borrow dollars if they're expected to depreciate, of course, so you can pay them back with cheaper dollars later).

Though I discussed the risk that an abrupt revaluation of Asian currencies would have, I also viewed that risk as somewhat remote - an important element to watch but not any sort of imminent threat. After all, China and Japan seemed to be willing to continue with the status quo, and nobody in the Administration would possibly provoke an event that could so profoundly destabilize the U.S. economy.

Well, in a move that is simply beyond comprehension, Treasury Secretary John Snow last week tried to jawbone China and Japan into revaluing their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar (i.e. to allow their currencies to become more expensive). In the unilateralist, partial equilibrium, no-unintended-consequences world that is the Bush Administration, more expensive Asian currencies are a way of protecting U.S. manufacturers from the competition of cheap imports. In the general equilibrium world that is reality, the potential effect of this policy could be disastrous.

How to quickly eliminate our gaping current account deficit

Recall that every major expansion in the U.S. economy has begun with a current account surplus. This means that the U.S. had not only enough savings to finance its own investment, but was even sending savings overseas by purchasing foreign securities. This allowed the U.S. to finance huge investment booms, first by drawing on those excess savings, and then by quickly moving to a current account deficit and importing savings from foreigners. Needless to say, with the U.S. presently running the deepest current account deficit in history, our ability to finance much sustained growth in domestic investment (factories, housing, equipment, capital spending) is sharply limited. Even our present level of economic activity is dependent on the largest inflows of foreign capital in history, largely from China and Japan.

In effect, the factor that allows the U.S. to continue its consumption binge, finance its investment, extend its housing boom, run irresponsibly large government deficits, swap corporate debt payments into ridiculously low short-term interest rates, and maintain unusually high valuations in the equity markets - the quiet support that keeps this whole house of cards standing - is the willingness of Asian economies to accumulate an endless supply of U.S. dollar assets (largely Treasury and U.S. agency securities). That willingness is driven by one goal - to hold their currencies down in relation to the U.S. dollar.

Incomprehensibly, the Administration is now trying to pressure China and Japan to give up that goal. If this effort succeeds, and particularly if that success is abrupt, surging short-term interest rates, higher corporate defaults, and a collapse in U.S. domestic investment would likely follow. As I used to teach my students, there is a really quick way to "balance" a current account deficit (which is also the main way that it happens in practice): plunge the economy into a deep recession. This isn't our expectation yet. It is, however, an increasing risk born of misguided economic analysis.

I-Bonds are at 4.8%

You have to hold them for at least a year, and you'll pay a 3 month interest penalty if you cash them before 5 years. But compared to the best 12 month CD rate I've found at 4.2%, which required opening a new bank account and paying bank fees, 4.8% and the terms are pretty good. If rates are higher after a year, it comes to a 1.2% penalty to get out at 12 months, so the APY would then be 3.6. The move-to rate would have to be at least 6.0% for this to be a sensible move. Seems like a decent place to stick cash.

Why I'm still a liberal

Evans: Why I'm still a liberal

May 22, 2005

I am, in most things, liberal because to my mushy eyes, the American "welfare state" has been (mostly) a success. Not a big fan of government, but a believer that some things are best done together, rather than individually.

History is quite clear about what happens when the "haves" don't bother to take care of the "have nots," or even the "have somes": Rule by the rich, the few, who will, eventually, lose control, often violently.

But as diehard conservatives insist we move from America's New Deal ethic into Ayn Rand Adventure Land — minimal taxes; everyone out for themselves — I can't imagine why they think our (far from perfect) system has been so awful.

After all, since Roosevelt, the United States has won the only war that really mattered, blasted into the economic stratosphere, raised standards of living, cultivated the middle class (that powerful antidote to pluto-oligarchy), become a technological Godzilla, and built the most dominant (if excessive) military in history.

Gee, what a trainwreck.

But people like change, I guess, and these days we seem to be demanding it regardless of the likely consequences.

In Missouri, Gov. Matt Blunt piously declares that raising taxes on "hard-working families" is immoral even as he strives to eliminate Medicaid services for the poor. This Christian politician seems to have missed one of Jesus's most oft-repeated messages: Take care of the poor.

In Kansas, the state board of education proposes redefining science as "a systematic method of continuing investigation" that does not limit its inquiry to the natural world. Under such Dark Ages claptrap, the "supernatural" would be fair game in Kansas science classes.

The supernatural they are after, of course, is God. But thousands of years of inquiry have not brought "naturalistic" proof of God, and good, old-fashioned faith has had to suffice. And once you open the door to the supernatural, what's to stop a kid from writing a biology paper on werewolves, unicorns or Oz?

I keep wondering if these people even "believe" in science, and if they are willing to eschew the medicine and technology — produced by "naturalistic" science — that has granted them such cushy lives.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is in high dudgeon over a Newsweek item about alleged "Quran abuse" at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. A small item, since retracted (though it's bolstered by substantial evidence), "caused" Muslim riots in Afghanistan, according to the Bush spin.

Now the White House, ignoring the undisputed abuse and murder of Muslims by U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, is playing the schoolmarm, telling Newsweek it has blood of 16 Muslims on its hands.

No mention of the tens of thousands of Muslims killed in ill-advised military actions, or the 1,622 U.S. troops killed (and more than 10,000 casualties) in Iraq because of much more egregious "errors" by our elected armchair gladiators.

And if we are to believe Newsweek is to blame for these deaths, then why aren't we blaming loudmouth ideologues in Congress for the dangers faced by judges who don't rule as some think they should? Following the tragic Terri Schiavo case, for example, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) suggested that we can hardly blame wackos for going after judges when they don't like their rulings.

Chicago Judge Joan H. Lefkow, whose husband and mother were murdered by a lunatic who didn't like her dismissal of his malpractice suit, chastised the agitators last week. Such rhetoric, she said, "can only encourage those who are on the edge ... to exact revenge on a judge who displeases them."

But our outrage is now selective, directed by people drunk on their vision of an America unfettered by collective responsibility, a society ruled by belief over facts, a judiciary beholden to party politics, and a foreign policy that may make us feel like kick-ass warriors from afar, but in fact makes the world more dangerous.

Call me what you will, but what, exactly, is so appealing about that grand vision?

Contact Clay Evans at (303) 473-1352 or evansc@dailycamera.com.

Wal-Mart and America

Protecting your god given right to shop.

Hiring is Obsolete

Web startup costs = living and eating.

RealMoney on Walmart

More Downside in Store for Wal-Mart
By James Cramer
It's clear that Wal-Mart is vulnerable, and things are going to get worse before they get better for the retailer, says James J. Cramer. The competition that Wal-Mart faces from slicker, more consumer-friendly rivals is hurting Wal-Mart, even with its low prices. Wal-Mart will continue to suffer until it gets in someone who can merchandise or unless we get a nasty recession. Until then, this stock is a sell.

The Note: carnage

"We say with all the genuine apolitical and non-partisan human concern that we can muster that the death and carnage in Iraq is truly staggering.
And/but we are sort of resigned to the Notion that it simply isn't going to break through to American news organizations, or, for the most part, Americans.
Democrats are so thoroughly spooked by John Kerry's loss —- and Republicans so inspired by their stay-the-course Commander in Chief —- that what is hands down the biggest story every day in the world will get almost no coverage. No conflict at home = no coverage.

This Is Your Brain on Motherhood - New York Times

Becoming a parent... can power up the mind with uniquely motivated learning. Having a baby is 'a revolution for the brain,' Dr. Merzenich says."

Interesting

Wal-Mart as an employer.

One America Committee: Blog

This is John Edwards site: it has content, it has speeches, message and links to a podcast. Highly recommended. It is message, it is leadership: Mr Edwards is using his exposure as vice presidential candiate to do good (ala Jimmy Carter) as opposed to running for office... it's the act of a statesman.

One America Committee: Blog

This is John Edwards site: it has content, it has speeches, message and links to a podcast. Highly recommended. It is message, it is leadership: Mr Edwards is using his exposure as vice presidential candiate to do good (ala Jimmy Carter) as opposed to running for office... it's the act of a statesman.

peoplewhoshouldbeshot: Bill Frist

'The message is that the Democrats who oppose a tiny handful of President Bush's judicial nominations are conducting an assault 'against people of faith.' By that, Senator Frist and his allies do not mean people of all faiths, only those of their faith.'
Shoot that fuck.
(All except that last sentence is from the NY Times editorial.)

Language!

"Because certain trees are sprouting in the Middle East, the world will soon end. Because the European Union has grown to its current size, fiery death and plagues of locusts are about to descend on the planet. Because Israel established a homeland, non-believers will, in a short while, suffer agonizing horrors before being damned to an eternity of pain."
See what can be done!
(Do you have the gift of language? You too can speak complete crap! Put your heart into it!)

Crazy Shit Department: Sony aims to beam sights, sounds into brain

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- If you think video games are engrossing now, just wait: PlayStation maker Sony Corp. has been granted a patent for beaming sensory information directly into the brain.

The technique could one day be used to create video games in which you can smell, taste, and touch...

Economic tsunami?

"'If the world's central bankers accumulate fewer dollars, the result would be an unrelenting American need to borrow in the face of an ever weaker dollar - a recipe for higher interest rates and higher prices. The economic repercussions could unfold gradually, resulting in a long, slow decline in living standards. Or there could be a quick unraveling, with the hallmarks of an uncontrolled fiscal crisis.'
-- New York Times editorial"

From the vaults: Wednesday, June 23, 2004 Moon declares himself the Messiah before a congressional reception

Hitler and Stalin have been "reborn as new persons."

More than a dozen lawmakers attended a congressional reception this year honoring the Rev. Sun Myung Moon in which Moon declared himself the Messiah and said his teachings have helped Hitler and Stalin be "reborn as new persons."


CapHillBlue? Nope, the Washington Post.

Moon has claimed to have spoken in "the spirit world" with all deceased U.S. presidents, Jesus, Moses, Mohammed and others. At the March 23 event, he said: "The founders of five great religions and many other leaders in the spirit world, including even Communist leaders such as Marx and Lenin . . . and dictators such as Hitler and Stalin, have found strength in my teachings, mended their ways and been reborn as new persons."

Details of the ceremony -- first reported by Salon.com writer John Gorenfeld -- have prompted several lawmakers to say they were misled or duped by organizers. Their complaints prompted a Moon-affiliated Web site to remove a video of the "Crown of Peace" ceremony two days ago, but other Web sites have preserved details and photos.

AtB: April 6, 2005 Tan Lucy Pez asks "Is this guy running the country? Who IS?"

1. The Wall Street Journal is read by the people who run the country.
2. The Washington Post is read by people who think they run the country.
3. The New York Times is read by people who think they should run the country and who are very good at crossword puzzles. (Some of us are. Some of us just do the puzzle...no reading.)
4. USA Today is read by people who think they ought to run the country but don't really understand The New York Times. They do, however, like their statistics shown in pie charts.
5. The Los Angeles Times is read by people who wouldn't mind running the country -- if they could find the time -- and if they didn't have to leave Southern California to do it.
6. The Boston Globe is read by people whose parents once ran the country and did a far superior job of it, thank you very much.
7. The New York Daily News is read by people who aren't too sure who's running the country and don't really care as long as they can get a seat on the train.
8. The New York Post is read by people who don't care who's running the country as long as they do something really scandalous, preferably while intoxicated.
9. The Miami Herald is read by people who are running another country but need the baseball scores.
10. The San Francisco Chronicle is read by people who aren't sure there is a country ... or that anyone is running it; but if so, they oppose all for which they stand. There are occasional exceptions if the leaders are handicapped-minority-feminist-atheist dwarfs who also happen to be illegal aliens from any other country or galaxy provided, of course, that they are not Republicans.
11. The National Enquirer is read by people trapped in line at the grocery store.
12. None of these are read by the guy who is running the country into the ground. I'm not so sure he can read.)

Hussman: The economy is basically a big karma train

As a sidenote, the gross domestic investment - plant, equipment, capital spending, real estate, etc - in the economy is exactly equal to saving in the economy (including imported savings from foreigners). So for instance, the savings that people create through their 401K programs and so forth do finance real investments, but those savings need not increase the value of stocks and may not even be of benefit to stock-issuing corporations at all, even if the savings are invested in stocks. For instance, if Mickey (who is a construction worker) invests new savings in a stock mutual fund through his 401K, the fund goes out and buys stock from Ricky, who gets Mickey's cash and invests it in a money market fund, which buys debt securities issued by a government agency, which purchases mortgages made by Nicky's bank, which lends the cash to Nicky, who uses it to pay construction workers to build a house. Though that route was more direct than most, savings really do equal investment for the nation as a whole. The economy is basically a big karma train.